Donald Trump pledged during his campaign that if he returned to the White House, he would impose taxes on all imported goods to the U.S. This proposal has left businesses and economists worldwide speculating on how likely he is to follow through.
Trump views tariffs as a tool to strengthen the U.S. economy, safeguard American jobs, and boost tax revenue. In previous years, he has implemented tariffs on specific countries, notably China, and on certain industries, like steel.
However, his recent campaign promise to levy a 10-20% tax on all foreign products could impact global pricing significantly. He argued that tariffs could solve various issues, from managing trade with China to curbing illegal immigration. “Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary,” Trump declared, signaling his clear intent to make tariffs a central economic policy.
Although much of Trump’s focus is on China, his tariff plans could extend to other regions as well. In response, the European Union (EU) has begun preparing countermeasures, wary of Trump’s rhetoric turning into policy. European finance ministers recently expressed concerns, emphasizing the need for cooperation rather than confrontation in the global economy. They fear that, should the U.S. implement widespread tariffs, Europe might have to respond with its own tariffs.
The EU has a history of retaliating; it once imposed tariffs on iconic American products like Harley-Davidson motorcycles, bourbon whiskey, and Levi’s jeans in response to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum. A senior central banker in the Eurozone mentioned that U.S. tariffs might not immediately affect Europe’s inflation, but Europe’s reaction could impact economic stability.
Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cautioned that a severe trade conflict could slash the global economy by about 7%—roughly equivalent to the combined economies of France and Germany.
The potential trade conflict presents a dilemma for the United Kingdom, particularly post-Brexit. The U.K. has been inching closer to the EU, especially on standards related to food and agriculture, which could complicate any future trade agreement with the U.S. The Biden administration did not pursue such a deal, and Trump’s influential trade advisor, Bob Lighthizer, previously stated that the U.K.’s economic alignment with the EU was a barrier.
Caught in the middle, the U.K. could try to stay neutral, but it would be challenging to escape the impacts, especially in key sectors like pharmaceuticals and automotive trade. While the U.K. government might attempt to mediate between the U.S. and EU, it’s uncertain if it would have much influence.
Another option for the U.K. could be to align with one side, potentially seeking exemption from Trump’s proposed tariffs. Some advisers within Trump’s circle have hinted that friendly nations might receive preferential treatment.
Looking beyond U.S. borders, there’s concern about the example set for other countries. If the U.S., the world’s largest economy, embraces protectionism, it may be harder to persuade smaller nations to avoid similar measures.
Trump’s rhetoric points to a serious commitment to his tariff plan, raising the possibility of a significant trade conflict. His recent comments about the EU underscore this. “The European Union sounds so nice, so lovely, right? All the nice European little countries that get together… They don’t take our cars. They don’t take our farm products,” he remarked. “They sell millions and millions of cars in the United States. No, no, no, they are going to have to pay a big price.”
After Trump’s campaign victory was confirmed, shares in German carmakers like BMW, Mercedes, and Volkswagen dropped by around 5-7%. For these companies, the U.S. is their largest export market.